05 / 08 · Decision
Business strategy & decisions
The big decision, modeled before you make it.
The problem“Second branch, new product line, or buy the competitor. I’ve heard opinions. I want numbers.”
A model per option, one written recommendation, kill criteria. The decision stays yours.
How a decision gets modeled
- Model each option: investment, payback, cash impact, downside
- Pressure-test the assumptions with the people who will deliver
- One recommendation, with the reasons and the risks written down
- Follow through: the plan becomes the budget
Three options · cash impact
- scenarios per option
- 3
- written recommendation
- 1
- months typical payback
- 18
What you get
Not a feature list. What changes next Tuesday.
- BeforeEveryone has an opinion, nobody has numbersAfterA decision you can explain to partners, board or bank
- BeforeUnclear how much you can loseAfterThe kill criteria if it goes wrong
- BeforeDecided in a meeting, no documentAfterA number for how much you can lose before it hurts
- 3options
- 9scenarios
- 1page recommendation
- 18months typical payback
Why it matters
The big decision, modeled before you make it.
Every option modeled
Investment, payback, cash impact, downside. The same structure for every option, so they can be compared.
Assumptions vs the doers
A model is as good as its assumptions. We test them with sales and operations, not just the CEO.
A written recommendation
One page: what we recommend, why, the risk, and when to stop. Something you can show partners and the bank.
How it unfolds
- Week 1
Define
What exactly is the decision? What are the options, including “do nothing”? What is the success criterion?
- Week 2
Model
Three options, three scenarios each. Cash impact month by month.
- Week 3
Pressure
What must be true for this to work? What if sales are 30% below? When do we stop?
- The decision
Recommend
One page. One meeting. Your decision. Then the plan becomes the budget.
What it looks like in practice
A model per option, one written recommendation, kill criteria. The decision stays yours.
- Day 1
- Two hours with the CEO: what is actually the question?
- Day 7
- Draft model. Usually one option falls away here.
- Day 12
- Session with managers: assumptions tested.
- Day 18
- Written recommendation. Decision meeting.
What people say, and what’s true
- They say
They say: “No time for a model, we need to decide.”
In practiceA million-dollar decision is worth three weeks. And a good model shortens the argument, it doesn’t lengthen it.
- They say
They say: “The numbers will tell us what to do.”
In practiceNo. The numbers tell you what it costs if you’re wrong. The decision is still yours, but informed.
- They say
They say: “We’ve already decided, we just need sign-off.”
In practiceGreat. Then the model tells you what must be true for the decision to work, and when to stop if it doesn’t.
“Asaf brings sharp financial insight and strong strategic thinking. His clarity, reliability, and execution play a key role in COYA’s growth and decision-making.”
Frequently asked
- Do you tell us what to do?
- We recommend, clearly, and show the reasoning. The decision stays yours.
- How does business strategy turn into a decision in numbers?
- Every option gets the same model: investment, payback, cash impact and a downside case. The assumptions are tested with the people who will deliver, and you get one written recommendation with kill criteria. The decision stays yours.
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